§ motivation · why radial exists
150 days. 6 protocols.
150.8M SOL idle every day.
Every chart on this page is computed from indexed swap data across Meteora and Raydium AMMs — 150 days of historical activity aggregated into daily metrics.
act 01·the problem
150M SOL idle every day.
Across the six largest Solana AMMs, a daily floor of ~150M SOL sits idle — every day, for 150 days running. Pool reserves earning zero yield while users wait.
01 · Daily minimum SOL per protocol
Daily minimum SOL across six protocols. Min = the absolute floor — capital that never moved on any block in the day.
On-chain analysis · 150-day window · 6 protocols
- DLMMmeteora
- CLMMraydium
- DAMM v2meteora
- AMM v4raydium
- DBCmeteora
- CPMMraydium
03 · Mean daily minimum, by protocol
Meteora DLMM alone parks 61.8M SOL on average in pool reserves earning nothing.
On-chain analysis · 150-day window · 6 protocols
act 02·the opportunity
4.9M–10M SOL/year at stake.
At blended 6.17% APY (mostly native staking + Marinade), the six protocols would generate 9.30M SOL per year. Conservative lending alone delivers 4.90M SOL. LST-heavy strategies push toward 10.2M SOL.
09 · Annual yield by protocol & strategy
Annual yield per protocol across three APY scenarios. SOL-denominated.
On-chain analysis · 150-day window · 6 protocols
10 · Cumulative yield over the window
Compounding over the 150-day window. Even conservative deployment alone surpasses 1.2M SOL.
On-chain analysis · 150-day window · 6 protocols
- conservative · 3.25%
- blended RMM · 6.17%
- lst-heavy · 6.75%
act 03·the risk
Free money would already be taken.
If idle SOL could be deployed naively, someone would have. The catch: pool drains. A 3-day worst case on DLMM hit 28%. The math has to clear that, with margin.
16 · Observed worst vs σ-buffer models
Worst observed 3-day drop vs the 2σ and 3σ buffer models (each scaled by √3 for the 3-day horizon). Buffer must cover historical worst.
On-chain analysis · 150-day window · 6 protocols
17 · Minimum K-σ to cover worst case
Minimum K-sigma to cover every protocol's worst observed drawdown. Green = K ≤ 2 (safe), yellow = K ≤ 3 (margin), red = K > 3 (insufficient).
On-chain analysis · 150-day window · 6 protocols
14 · Annual yield across five buffer strategies
Annual yield per protocol across five strategies. Even the conservative 3σ buffer retains 65–88% of the perfect-oracle yield.
On-chain analysis · 150-day window · 6 protocols
- no buffer
- naive
- perfect oracle
- 2σ buffer
- 3σ buffer
act 04·the forecast
Forecast, then deploy.
Walk-forward ML backtest, 5 blocks × 7 days. The Tight model trims over-reserve by ~40% vs the Safe baseline at the same shortfall tolerance. Every protocol gets a strategy that strictly dominates naive 3σ.
19 · Forecast vs actual · 3×2 small multiples
Actual min(D+2) vs Tight and Safe model predictions per protocol. Six small multiples, shared X axis.
On-chain analysis · 150-day window · 6 protocols
- actual
- tight model
- safe model
21 · Forecast trade-off · shortfall vs over-reserve
Pareto frontier: shortfall % (x) vs over-reserve SOL (y). Each protocol has a tight–safe pair (filled = tight, outlined = safe) connected by a dotted line in its color.
On-chain analysis · 150-day window · 6 protocols